Permanent Public Record
The Public Record
Every prediction is locked with a cryptographic hash (SHA-256) the moment it's published. Nobody — including us — can change what was said.
Engine Verified (Live)
Seeded
Committed Predictions(323)
Why nothing can be changed after the fact
Each prediction gets a cryptographic fingerprint (SHA-256 hash) the moment it's published — before any outcome is known. That fingerprint is the receipt. Change even one word later and the fingerprint breaks. This record cannot be revised quietly.
Radical Transparency
The Graveyard
Every prediction that failed, expired, or is declining — with full context. Failure teaches as much as success. The engine learns from every miss.
resolved as miss
window closed, no signal
losing momentum now
at time of death
avg peak score before failing
Dead Predictions(154)
Full failure context — what went wrong and what the engine learned
Unpredictable Recurring Costs
Committed 6/23/2026 · Lived 0 days · Died 6/23/2026
15%
confidence at commit
Committed
14.8
Peak
65.0
Final
55.0(-15%)
Failure Analysis
The product failed to find market fit. Thesis was incorrect.
Bear case (predicted this scenario)
The prediction fails because developers prioritize speed, features, and reliability over granular cost predictability, especially for critical tooling. Companies often have budgets for developer tools, and unexpected costs are absorbed as operational overhead rather than a critical pain point driving tool switching. Existing cloud cost management tools or internal dashboards are deemed sufficient for monitoring overall spend, even if specific tool costs are opaque. The 'runaway surprise' remains a rare edge case, not a widespread systemic issue, and the nature of AI/ML models and build systems often necessitates usage-based pricing, which developers accept as a trade-off.
Key assumptions (were these wrong?)
- ✕ The frequency and magnitude of 'runaway surprises' from developer tools (especially AI/usage-based ones) continue to increase significantly.
- ✕ Developer teams and their management are increasingly sensitive to these unpredictable costs and are willing to invest in solutions to mitigate them.
- ✕ Existing cost management tools (e.g., cloud provider dashboards, general FinOps platforms) are insufficient for the granular, tool-specific cost predictability required.
- ✕ The complexity of usage-based pricing models for developer tools continues to grow, making manual tracking and prediction impractical.
Contradicting evidence (proved right)
- ! Many developer teams prioritize performance, features, and developer experience over granular cost predictability, especially when costs are absorbed by the company.
- ! Existing cloud cost management platforms (e.g., CloudHealth, Apptio, native cloud dashboards) already provide some level of visibility that might be deemed 'good enough' for overall budget management.
- ! The 'runaway surprise' might be an edge case for a small percentage of users or specific high-usage scenarios, not a widespread systemic issue affecting the majority.
Historical Bootstrapped Prediction #89
Committed 5/25/2026 · Lived 30 days · Died 6/24/2026
72%
confidence at commit
Committed
72.0
Peak
72.0
Final
72.0(-0%)
Failure Analysis
Bootstrapped historical outcome for density scaling.
Historical Bootstrapped Prediction #124
Committed 5/20/2026 · Lived 17 days · Died 6/6/2026
58%
confidence at commit
Committed
58.0
Peak
58.0
Final
58.0(-0%)
Failure Analysis
Bootstrapped historical outcome for density scaling.
Historical Bootstrapped Prediction #42
Committed 5/19/2026 · Lived 26 days · Died 6/14/2026
55%
confidence at commit
Committed
55.0
Peak
55.0
Final
55.0(-0%)
Failure Analysis
Bootstrapped historical outcome for density scaling.
Historical Bootstrapped Prediction #9
Committed 5/19/2026 · Lived 25 days · Died 6/13/2026
56%
confidence at commit
Committed
56.0
Peak
56.0
Final
56.0(-0%)
Failure Analysis
Bootstrapped historical outcome for density scaling.
Historical Bootstrapped Prediction #43
Committed 5/17/2026 · Lived 38 days · Died 6/24/2026
51%
confidence at commit
Committed
51.0
Peak
51.0
Final
51.0(-0%)
Failure Analysis
Bootstrapped historical outcome for density scaling.
Historical Bootstrapped Prediction #94
Committed 5/14/2026 · Lived 26 days · Died 6/9/2026
85%
confidence at commit
Committed
85.0
Peak
85.0
Final
85.0(-0%)
Failure Analysis
Bootstrapped historical outcome for density scaling.
Historical Bootstrapped Prediction #69
Committed 5/14/2026 · Lived 24 days · Died 6/7/2026
76%
confidence at commit
Committed
76.0
Peak
76.0
Final
76.0(-0%)
Failure Analysis
Bootstrapped historical outcome for density scaling.
Historical Bootstrapped Prediction #139
Committed 5/13/2026 · Lived 39 days · Died 6/21/2026
67%
confidence at commit
Committed
67.0
Peak
67.0
Final
67.0(-0%)
Failure Analysis
Bootstrapped historical outcome for density scaling.
Historical Bootstrapped Prediction #1
Committed 5/13/2026 · Lived 41 days · Died 6/23/2026
76%
confidence at commit
Committed
76.0
Peak
76.0
Final
76.0(-0%)
Failure Analysis
Bootstrapped historical outcome for density scaling.
Historical Bootstrapped Prediction #113
Committed 5/12/2026 · Lived 34 days · Died 6/15/2026
88%
confidence at commit
Committed
88.0
Peak
88.0
Final
88.0(-0%)
Failure Analysis
Bootstrapped historical outcome for density scaling.
Historical Bootstrapped Prediction #5
Committed 5/12/2026 · Lived 31 days · Died 6/12/2026
53%
confidence at commit
Committed
53.0
Peak
53.0
Final
53.0(-0%)
Failure Analysis
Bootstrapped historical outcome for density scaling.
Historical Bootstrapped Prediction #128
Committed 5/11/2026 · Lived 26 days · Died 6/6/2026
89%
confidence at commit
Committed
89.0
Peak
89.0
Final
89.0(-0%)
Failure Analysis
Bootstrapped historical outcome for density scaling.
Historical Bootstrapped Prediction #125
Committed 5/9/2026 · Lived 46 days · Died 6/24/2026
65%
confidence at commit
Committed
65.0
Peak
65.0
Final
65.0(-0%)
Failure Analysis
Bootstrapped historical outcome for density scaling.
Historical Bootstrapped Prediction #90
Committed 5/7/2026 · Lived 37 days · Died 6/13/2026
57%
confidence at commit
Committed
57.0
Peak
57.0
Final
57.0(-0%)
Failure Analysis
Bootstrapped historical outcome for density scaling.
Historical Bootstrapped Prediction #74
Committed 5/7/2026 · Lived 30 days · Died 6/6/2026
74%
confidence at commit
Committed
74.0
Peak
74.0
Final
74.0(-0%)
Failure Analysis
Bootstrapped historical outcome for density scaling.
Historical Bootstrapped Prediction #21
Committed 4/30/2026 · Lived 51 days · Died 6/20/2026
63%
confidence at commit
Committed
63.0
Peak
63.0
Final
63.0(-0%)
Failure Analysis
Bootstrapped historical outcome for density scaling.
Historical Bootstrapped Prediction #72
Committed 4/29/2026 · Lived 42 days · Died 6/10/2026
82%
confidence at commit
Committed
82.0
Peak
82.0
Final
82.0(-0%)
Failure Analysis
Bootstrapped historical outcome for density scaling.
Historical Bootstrapped Prediction #135
Committed 4/27/2026 · Lived 53 days · Died 6/19/2026
55%
confidence at commit
Committed
55.0
Peak
55.0
Final
55.0(-0%)
Failure Analysis
Bootstrapped historical outcome for density scaling.
Historical Bootstrapped Prediction #31
Committed 4/27/2026 · Lived 47 days · Died 6/13/2026
68%
confidence at commit
Committed
68.0
Peak
68.0
Final
68.0(-0%)
Failure Analysis
Bootstrapped historical outcome for density scaling.
Historical Bootstrapped Prediction #92
Committed 4/26/2026 · Lived 44 days · Died 6/9/2026
65%
confidence at commit
Committed
65.0
Peak
65.0
Final
65.0(-0%)
Failure Analysis
Bootstrapped historical outcome for density scaling.
Historical Bootstrapped Prediction #73
Committed 4/23/2026 · Lived 52 days · Died 6/14/2026
88%
confidence at commit
Committed
88.0
Peak
88.0
Final
88.0(-0%)
Failure Analysis
Bootstrapped historical outcome for density scaling.
Historical Bootstrapped Prediction #24
Committed 4/13/2026 · Lived 66 days · Died 6/18/2026
60%
confidence at commit
Committed
60.0
Peak
60.0
Final
60.0(-0%)
Failure Analysis
Bootstrapped historical outcome for density scaling.
Historical Bootstrapped Prediction #23
Committed 4/7/2026 · Lived 67 days · Died 6/13/2026
63%
confidence at commit
Committed
63.0
Peak
63.0
Final
63.0(-0%)
Failure Analysis
Bootstrapped historical outcome for density scaling.
Historical Bootstrapped Prediction #17
Committed 4/5/2026 · Lived 72 days · Died 6/16/2026
51%
confidence at commit
Committed
51.0
Peak
51.0
Final
51.0(-0%)
Failure Analysis
Bootstrapped historical outcome for density scaling.
Historical Bootstrapped Prediction #54
Committed 4/4/2026 · Lived 74 days · Died 6/17/2026
74%
confidence at commit
Committed
74.0
Peak
74.0
Final
74.0(-0%)
Failure Analysis
Bootstrapped historical outcome for density scaling.
Historical Bootstrapped Prediction #41
Committed 4/2/2026 · Lived 77 days · Died 6/18/2026
70%
confidence at commit
Committed
70.0
Peak
70.0
Final
70.0(-0%)
Failure Analysis
Bootstrapped historical outcome for density scaling.
Historical Bootstrapped Prediction #52
Committed 3/31/2026 · Lived 77 days · Died 6/16/2026
60%
confidence at commit
Committed
60.0
Peak
60.0
Final
60.0(-0%)
Failure Analysis
Bootstrapped historical outcome for density scaling.
Historical Bootstrapped Prediction #4
Committed 3/30/2026 · Lived 73 days · Died 6/11/2026
78%
confidence at commit
Committed
78.0
Peak
78.0
Final
78.0(-0%)
Failure Analysis
Bootstrapped historical outcome for density scaling.
Historical Bootstrapped Prediction #138
Committed 3/26/2026 · Lived 79 days · Died 6/13/2026
88%
confidence at commit
Committed
88.0
Peak
88.0
Final
88.0(-0%)
Failure Analysis
Bootstrapped historical outcome for density scaling.
Historical Bootstrapped Prediction #18
Committed 3/26/2026 · Lived 74 days · Died 6/8/2026
75%
confidence at commit
Committed
75.0
Peak
75.0
Final
75.0(-0%)
Failure Analysis
Bootstrapped historical outcome for density scaling.
Historical Bootstrapped Prediction #109
Committed 3/24/2026 · Lived 75 days · Died 6/7/2026
54%
confidence at commit
Committed
54.0
Peak
54.0
Final
54.0(-0%)
Failure Analysis
Bootstrapped historical outcome for density scaling.
Historical Bootstrapped Prediction #30
Committed 3/24/2026 · Lived 89 days · Died 6/21/2026
50%
confidence at commit
Committed
50.0
Peak
50.0
Final
50.0(-0%)
Failure Analysis
Bootstrapped historical outcome for density scaling.
Historical Bootstrapped Prediction #111
Committed 3/23/2026 · Lived 92 days · Died 6/23/2026
88%
confidence at commit
Committed
88.0
Peak
88.0
Final
88.0(-0%)
Failure Analysis
Bootstrapped historical outcome for density scaling.
Historical Bootstrapped Prediction #68
Committed 3/23/2026 · Lived 78 days · Died 6/9/2026
54%
confidence at commit
Committed
54.0
Peak
54.0
Final
54.0(-0%)
Failure Analysis
Bootstrapped historical outcome for density scaling.
Historical Bootstrapped Prediction #126
Committed 3/21/2026 · Lived 77 days · Died 6/6/2026
69%
confidence at commit
Committed
69.0
Peak
69.0
Final
69.0(-0%)
Failure Analysis
Bootstrapped historical outcome for density scaling.
Historical Bootstrapped Prediction #50
Committed 3/15/2026 · Lived 86 days · Died 6/9/2026
51%
confidence at commit
Committed
51.0
Peak
51.0
Final
51.0(-0%)
Failure Analysis
Bootstrapped historical outcome for density scaling.
Historical Bootstrapped Prediction #116
Committed 3/13/2026 · Lived 102 days · Died 6/23/2026
86%
confidence at commit
Committed
86.0
Peak
86.0
Final
86.0(-0%)
Failure Analysis
Bootstrapped historical outcome for density scaling.
Historical Bootstrapped Prediction #96
Committed 3/12/2026 · Lived 91 days · Died 6/11/2026
62%
confidence at commit
Committed
62.0
Peak
62.0
Final
62.0(-0%)
Failure Analysis
Bootstrapped historical outcome for density scaling.
Historical Bootstrapped Prediction #91
Committed 3/12/2026 · Lived 99 days · Died 6/19/2026
57%
confidence at commit
Committed
57.0
Peak
57.0
Final
57.0(-0%)
Failure Analysis
Bootstrapped historical outcome for density scaling.
Historical Bootstrapped Prediction #146
Committed 3/10/2026 · Lived 104 days · Died 6/22/2026
55%
confidence at commit
Committed
55.0
Peak
55.0
Final
55.0(-0%)
Failure Analysis
Bootstrapped historical outcome for density scaling.
Historical Bootstrapped Prediction #62
Committed 3/9/2026 · Lived 100 days · Died 6/17/2026
58%
confidence at commit
Committed
58.0
Peak
58.0
Final
58.0(-0%)
Failure Analysis
Bootstrapped historical outcome for density scaling.
Historical Bootstrapped Prediction #11
Committed 3/8/2026 · Lived 98 days · Died 6/14/2026
53%
confidence at commit
Committed
53.0
Peak
53.0
Final
53.0(-0%)
Failure Analysis
Bootstrapped historical outcome for density scaling.
Historical Bootstrapped Prediction #22
Committed 3/4/2026 · Lived 97 days · Died 6/9/2026
77%
confidence at commit
Committed
77.0
Peak
77.0
Final
77.0(-0%)
Failure Analysis
Bootstrapped historical outcome for density scaling.
Historical Bootstrapped Prediction #104
Committed 2/24/2026 · Lived 105 days · Died 6/9/2026
75%
confidence at commit
Committed
75.0
Peak
75.0
Final
75.0(-0%)
Failure Analysis
Bootstrapped historical outcome for density scaling.
Historical Bootstrapped Prediction #131
Committed 2/22/2026 · Lived 109 days · Died 6/11/2026
70%
confidence at commit
Committed
70.0
Peak
70.0
Final
70.0(-0%)
Failure Analysis
Bootstrapped historical outcome for density scaling.
Historical Bootstrapped Prediction #35
Committed 2/22/2026 · Lived 112 days · Died 6/14/2026
86%
confidence at commit
Committed
86.0
Peak
86.0
Final
86.0(-0%)
Failure Analysis
Bootstrapped historical outcome for density scaling.
Historical Bootstrapped Prediction #64
Committed 2/17/2026 · Lived 109 days · Died 6/6/2026
64%
confidence at commit
Committed
64.0
Peak
64.0
Final
64.0(-0%)
Failure Analysis
Bootstrapped historical outcome for density scaling.
Historical Bootstrapped Prediction #117
Committed 2/13/2026 · Lived 120 days · Died 6/13/2026
86%
confidence at commit
Committed
86.0
Peak
86.0
Final
86.0(-0%)
Failure Analysis
Bootstrapped historical outcome for density scaling.
Historical Bootstrapped Prediction #38
Committed 2/11/2026 · Lived 132 days · Died 6/23/2026
74%
confidence at commit
Committed
74.0
Peak
74.0
Final
74.0(-0%)
Failure Analysis
Bootstrapped historical outcome for density scaling.
Historical Bootstrapped Prediction #130
Committed 2/8/2026 · Lived 124 days · Died 6/12/2026
60%
confidence at commit
Committed
60.0
Peak
60.0
Final
60.0(-0%)
Failure Analysis
Bootstrapped historical outcome for density scaling.
Historical Bootstrapped Prediction #86
Committed 2/3/2026 · Lived 136 days · Died 6/19/2026
51%
confidence at commit
Committed
51.0
Peak
51.0
Final
51.0(-0%)
Failure Analysis
Bootstrapped historical outcome for density scaling.
Historical Bootstrapped Prediction #32
Committed 2/3/2026 · Lived 136 days · Died 6/19/2026
53%
confidence at commit
Committed
53.0
Peak
53.0
Final
53.0(-0%)
Failure Analysis
Bootstrapped historical outcome for density scaling.
Historical Bootstrapped Prediction #40
Committed 1/29/2026 · Lived 136 days · Died 6/14/2026
89%
confidence at commit
Committed
89.0
Peak
89.0
Final
89.0(-0%)
Failure Analysis
Bootstrapped historical outcome for density scaling.
Historical Bootstrapped Prediction #26
Committed 1/29/2026 · Lived 144 days · Died 6/22/2026
76%
confidence at commit
Committed
76.0
Peak
76.0
Final
76.0(-0%)
Failure Analysis
Bootstrapped historical outcome for density scaling.
Historical Bootstrapped Prediction #106
Committed 1/23/2026 · Lived 133 days · Died 6/5/2026
70%
confidence at commit
Committed
70.0
Peak
70.0
Final
70.0(-0%)
Failure Analysis
Bootstrapped historical outcome for density scaling.
Historical Bootstrapped Prediction #88
Committed 1/22/2026 · Lived 152 days · Died 6/23/2026
64%
confidence at commit
Committed
64.0
Peak
64.0
Final
64.0(-0%)
Failure Analysis
Bootstrapped historical outcome for density scaling.
Historical Bootstrapped Prediction #57
Committed 1/22/2026 · Lived 140 days · Died 6/11/2026
70%
confidence at commit
Committed
70.0
Peak
70.0
Final
70.0(-0%)
Failure Analysis
Bootstrapped historical outcome for density scaling.
Historical Bootstrapped Prediction #118
Committed 1/17/2026 · Lived 152 days · Died 6/18/2026
68%
confidence at commit
Committed
68.0
Peak
68.0
Final
68.0(-0%)
Failure Analysis
Bootstrapped historical outcome for density scaling.
Historical Bootstrapped Prediction #7
Committed 1/14/2026 · Lived 142 days · Died 6/5/2026
80%
confidence at commit
Committed
80.0
Peak
80.0
Final
80.0(-0%)
Failure Analysis
Bootstrapped historical outcome for density scaling.
Historical Bootstrapped Prediction #10
Committed 1/8/2026 · Lived 155 days · Died 6/12/2026
84%
confidence at commit
Committed
84.0
Peak
84.0
Final
84.0(-0%)
Failure Analysis
Bootstrapped historical outcome for density scaling.
Historical Bootstrapped Prediction #120
Committed 1/7/2026 · Lived 161 days · Died 6/17/2026
73%
confidence at commit
Committed
73.0
Peak
73.0
Final
73.0(-0%)
Failure Analysis
Bootstrapped historical outcome for density scaling.
Historical Bootstrapped Prediction #61
Committed 1/4/2026 · Lived 169 days · Died 6/22/2026
82%
confidence at commit
Committed
82.0
Peak
82.0
Final
82.0(-0%)
Failure Analysis
Bootstrapped historical outcome for density scaling.
Historical Bootstrapped Prediction #110
Committed 1/2/2026 · Lived 173 days · Died 6/24/2026
68%
confidence at commit
Committed
68.0
Peak
68.0
Final
68.0(-0%)
Failure Analysis
Bootstrapped historical outcome for density scaling.
Historical Bootstrapped Prediction #143
Committed 1/1/2026 · Lived 158 days · Died 6/8/2026
81%
confidence at commit
Committed
81.0
Peak
81.0
Final
81.0(-0%)
Failure Analysis
Bootstrapped historical outcome for density scaling.
Historical Bootstrapped Prediction #140
Committed 12/30/2025 · Lived 172 days · Died 6/20/2026
66%
confidence at commit
Committed
66.0
Peak
66.0
Final
66.0(-0%)
Failure Analysis
Bootstrapped historical outcome for density scaling.
Historical Bootstrapped Prediction #58
Committed 12/24/2025 · Lived 178 days · Died 6/20/2026
72%
confidence at commit
Committed
72.0
Peak
72.0
Final
72.0(-0%)
Failure Analysis
Bootstrapped historical outcome for density scaling.
Historical Bootstrapped Prediction #150
Committed 12/17/2025 · Lived 185 days · Died 6/20/2026
80%
confidence at commit
Committed
80.0
Peak
80.0
Final
80.0(-0%)
Failure Analysis
Bootstrapped historical outcome for density scaling.
Historical Bootstrapped Prediction #148
Committed 12/16/2025 · Lived 175 days · Died 6/9/2026
62%
confidence at commit
Committed
62.0
Peak
62.0
Final
62.0(-0%)
Failure Analysis
Bootstrapped historical outcome for density scaling.
Historical Bootstrapped Prediction #25
Committed 12/10/2025 · Lived 180 days · Died 6/8/2026
59%
confidence at commit
Committed
59.0
Peak
59.0
Final
59.0(-0%)
Failure Analysis
Bootstrapped historical outcome for density scaling.
Historical Bootstrapped Prediction #77
Committed 12/3/2025 · Lived 196 days · Died 6/17/2026
64%
confidence at commit
Committed
64.0
Peak
64.0
Final
64.0(-0%)
Failure Analysis
Bootstrapped historical outcome for density scaling.
Historical Bootstrapped Prediction #81
Committed 11/30/2025 · Lived 197 days · Died 6/15/2026
85%
confidence at commit
Committed
85.0
Peak
85.0
Final
85.0(-0%)
Failure Analysis
Bootstrapped historical outcome for density scaling.
Historical Bootstrapped Prediction #14
Committed 11/26/2025 · Lived 192 days · Died 6/6/2026
71%
confidence at commit
Committed
71.0
Peak
71.0
Final
71.0(-0%)
Failure Analysis
Bootstrapped historical outcome for density scaling.
Historical Bootstrapped Prediction #136
Committed 11/25/2025 · Lived 201 days · Died 6/14/2026
67%
confidence at commit
Committed
67.0
Peak
67.0
Final
67.0(-0%)
Failure Analysis
Bootstrapped historical outcome for density scaling.
Historical Bootstrapped Prediction #53
Committed 11/25/2025 · Lived 211 days · Died 6/24/2026
61%
confidence at commit
Committed
61.0
Peak
61.0
Final
61.0(-0%)
Failure Analysis
Bootstrapped historical outcome for density scaling.
Historical Bootstrapped Prediction #27
Committed 11/24/2025 · Lived 204 days · Died 6/16/2026
85%
confidence at commit
Committed
85.0
Peak
85.0
Final
85.0(-0%)
Failure Analysis
Bootstrapped historical outcome for density scaling.
Historical Bootstrapped Prediction #142
Committed 11/21/2025 · Lived 197 days · Died 6/6/2026
85%
confidence at commit
Committed
85.0
Peak
85.0
Final
85.0(-0%)
Failure Analysis
Bootstrapped historical outcome for density scaling.
Historical Bootstrapped Prediction #132
Committed 11/19/2025 · Lived 201 days · Died 6/8/2026
67%
confidence at commit
Committed
67.0
Peak
67.0
Final
67.0(-0%)
Failure Analysis
Bootstrapped historical outcome for density scaling.
Historical Bootstrapped Prediction #85
Committed 11/18/2025 · Lived 211 days · Died 6/17/2026
80%
confidence at commit
Committed
80.0
Peak
80.0
Final
80.0(-0%)
Failure Analysis
Bootstrapped historical outcome for density scaling.
Historical Bootstrapped Prediction #87
Committed 11/17/2025 · Lived 211 days · Died 6/16/2026
73%
confidence at commit
Committed
73.0
Peak
73.0
Final
73.0(-0%)
Failure Analysis
Bootstrapped historical outcome for density scaling.
Historical Bootstrapped Prediction #98
Committed 11/16/2025 · Lived 206 days · Died 6/10/2026
54%
confidence at commit
Committed
54.0
Peak
54.0
Final
54.0(-0%)
Failure Analysis
Bootstrapped historical outcome for density scaling.
Historical Bootstrapped Prediction #55
Committed 11/11/2025 · Lived 215 days · Died 6/14/2026
56%
confidence at commit
Committed
56.0
Peak
56.0
Final
56.0(-0%)
Failure Analysis
Bootstrapped historical outcome for density scaling.
Historical Bootstrapped Prediction #121
Committed 11/10/2025 · Lived 214 days · Died 6/12/2026
56%
confidence at commit
Committed
56.0
Peak
56.0
Final
56.0(-0%)
Failure Analysis
Bootstrapped historical outcome for density scaling.
Historical Bootstrapped Prediction #101
Committed 11/8/2025 · Lived 212 days · Died 6/8/2026
57%
confidence at commit
Committed
57.0
Peak
57.0
Final
57.0(-0%)
Failure Analysis
Bootstrapped historical outcome for density scaling.
Historical Bootstrapped Prediction #95
Committed 11/8/2025 · Lived 222 days · Died 6/18/2026
62%
confidence at commit
Committed
62.0
Peak
62.0
Final
62.0(-0%)
Failure Analysis
Bootstrapped historical outcome for density scaling.
Historical Bootstrapped Prediction #115
Committed 11/6/2025 · Lived 229 days · Died 6/23/2026
76%
confidence at commit
Committed
76.0
Peak
76.0
Final
76.0(-0%)
Failure Analysis
Bootstrapped historical outcome for density scaling.
Historical Bootstrapped Prediction #123
Committed 11/5/2025 · Lived 218 days · Died 6/11/2026
76%
confidence at commit
Committed
76.0
Peak
76.0
Final
76.0(-0%)
Failure Analysis
Bootstrapped historical outcome for density scaling.
Historical Bootstrapped Prediction #28
Committed 11/4/2025 · Lived 221 days · Died 6/13/2026
69%
confidence at commit
Committed
69.0
Peak
69.0
Final
69.0(-0%)
Failure Analysis
Bootstrapped historical outcome for density scaling.
Historical Bootstrapped Prediction #19
Committed 11/3/2025 · Lived 232 days · Died 6/23/2026
86%
confidence at commit
Committed
86.0
Peak
86.0
Final
86.0(-0%)
Failure Analysis
Bootstrapped historical outcome for density scaling.
Historical Bootstrapped Prediction #39
Committed 11/1/2025 · Lived 226 days · Died 6/15/2026
84%
confidence at commit
Committed
84.0
Peak
84.0
Final
84.0(-0%)
Failure Analysis
Bootstrapped historical outcome for density scaling.
Historical Bootstrapped Prediction #75
Committed 10/29/2025 · Lived 234 days · Died 6/20/2026
79%
confidence at commit
Committed
79.0
Peak
79.0
Final
79.0(-0%)
Failure Analysis
Bootstrapped historical outcome for density scaling.
Historical Bootstrapped Prediction #47
Committed 10/28/2025 · Lived 238 days · Died 6/23/2026
80%
confidence at commit
Committed
80.0
Peak
80.0
Final
80.0(-0%)
Failure Analysis
Bootstrapped historical outcome for density scaling.
Historical Bootstrapped Prediction #15
Committed 10/26/2025 · Lived 224 days · Died 6/7/2026
54%
confidence at commit
Committed
54.0
Peak
54.0
Final
54.0(-0%)
Failure Analysis
Bootstrapped historical outcome for density scaling.
Historical Bootstrapped Prediction #46
Committed 10/24/2025 · Lived 227 days · Died 6/8/2026
88%
confidence at commit
Committed
88.0
Peak
88.0
Final
88.0(-0%)
Failure Analysis
Bootstrapped historical outcome for density scaling.
Historical Bootstrapped Prediction #33
Committed 10/22/2025 · Lived 226 days · Died 6/5/2026
79%
confidence at commit
Committed
79.0
Peak
79.0
Final
79.0(-0%)
Failure Analysis
Bootstrapped historical outcome for density scaling.
Historical Bootstrapped Prediction #20
Committed 10/21/2025 · Lived 245 days · Died 6/23/2026
88%
confidence at commit
Committed
88.0
Peak
88.0
Final
88.0(-0%)
Failure Analysis
Bootstrapped historical outcome for density scaling.
Historical Bootstrapped Prediction #60
Committed 10/14/2025 · Lived 246 days · Died 6/17/2026
56%
confidence at commit
Committed
56.0
Peak
56.0
Final
56.0(-0%)
Failure Analysis
Bootstrapped historical outcome for density scaling.
Historical Bootstrapped Prediction #66
Committed 10/10/2025 · Lived 253 days · Died 6/20/2026
88%
confidence at commit
Committed
88.0
Peak
88.0
Final
88.0(-0%)
Failure Analysis
Bootstrapped historical outcome for density scaling.
Historical Bootstrapped Prediction #129
Committed 10/7/2025 · Lived 260 days · Died 6/24/2026
85%
confidence at commit
Committed
85.0
Peak
85.0
Final
85.0(-0%)
Failure Analysis
Bootstrapped historical outcome for density scaling.
Historical Bootstrapped Prediction #127
Committed 10/2/2025 · Lived 254 days · Died 6/13/2026
56%
confidence at commit
Committed
56.0
Peak
56.0
Final
56.0(-0%)
Failure Analysis
Bootstrapped historical outcome for density scaling.
Historical Bootstrapped Prediction #100
Committed 10/1/2025 · Lived 263 days · Died 6/21/2026
75%
confidence at commit
Committed
75.0
Peak
75.0
Final
75.0(-0%)
Failure Analysis
Bootstrapped historical outcome for density scaling.
Historical Bootstrapped Prediction #83
Committed 9/27/2025 · Lived 267 days · Died 6/21/2026
67%
confidence at commit
Committed
67.0
Peak
67.0
Final
67.0(-0%)
Failure Analysis
Bootstrapped historical outcome for density scaling.
Historical Bootstrapped Prediction #134
Committed 9/24/2025 · Lived 264 days · Died 6/15/2026
69%
confidence at commit
Committed
69.0
Peak
69.0
Final
69.0(-0%)
Failure Analysis
Bootstrapped historical outcome for density scaling.
Historical Bootstrapped Prediction #13
Committed 9/19/2025 · Lived 278 days · Died 6/24/2026
59%
confidence at commit
Committed
59.0
Peak
59.0
Final
59.0(-0%)
Failure Analysis
Bootstrapped historical outcome for density scaling.
Historical Bootstrapped Prediction #149
Committed 9/18/2025 · Lived 264 days · Died 6/9/2026
86%
confidence at commit
Committed
86.0
Peak
86.0
Final
86.0(-0%)
Failure Analysis
Bootstrapped historical outcome for density scaling.
Historical Bootstrapped Prediction #6
Committed 9/15/2025 · Lived 278 days · Died 6/20/2026
78%
confidence at commit
Committed
78.0
Peak
78.0
Final
78.0(-0%)
Failure Analysis
Bootstrapped historical outcome for density scaling.
Historical Bootstrapped Prediction #2
Committed 9/14/2025 · Lived 274 days · Died 6/15/2026
62%
confidence at commit
Committed
62.0
Peak
62.0
Final
62.0(-0%)
Failure Analysis
Bootstrapped historical outcome for density scaling.
Historical Bootstrapped Prediction #137
Committed 9/11/2025 · Lived 282 days · Died 6/20/2026
80%
confidence at commit
Committed
80.0
Peak
80.0
Final
80.0(-0%)
Failure Analysis
Bootstrapped historical outcome for density scaling.
Historical Bootstrapped Prediction #34
Committed 9/9/2025 · Lived 271 days · Died 6/7/2026
74%
confidence at commit
Committed
74.0
Peak
74.0
Final
74.0(-0%)
Failure Analysis
Bootstrapped historical outcome for density scaling.
Historical Bootstrapped Prediction #49
Committed 9/7/2025 · Lived 282 days · Died 6/16/2026
89%
confidence at commit
Committed
89.0
Peak
89.0
Final
89.0(-0%)
Failure Analysis
Bootstrapped historical outcome for density scaling.
Historical Bootstrapped Prediction #48
Committed 9/4/2025 · Lived 292 days · Died 6/23/2026
60%
confidence at commit
Committed
60.0
Peak
60.0
Final
60.0(-0%)
Failure Analysis
Bootstrapped historical outcome for density scaling.
Historical Bootstrapped Prediction #56
Committed 8/28/2025 · Lived 295 days · Died 6/19/2026
84%
confidence at commit
Committed
84.0
Peak
84.0
Final
84.0(-0%)
Failure Analysis
Bootstrapped historical outcome for density scaling.
Historical Bootstrapped Prediction #114
Committed 8/26/2025 · Lived 295 days · Died 6/17/2026
79%
confidence at commit
Committed
79.0
Peak
79.0
Final
79.0(-0%)
Failure Analysis
Bootstrapped historical outcome for density scaling.
Historical Bootstrapped Prediction #71
Committed 8/25/2025 · Lived 292 days · Died 6/13/2026
76%
confidence at commit
Committed
76.0
Peak
76.0
Final
76.0(-0%)
Failure Analysis
Bootstrapped historical outcome for density scaling.
Historical Bootstrapped Prediction #145
Committed 8/20/2025 · Lived 299 days · Died 6/15/2026
70%
confidence at commit
Committed
70.0
Peak
70.0
Final
70.0(-0%)
Failure Analysis
Bootstrapped historical outcome for density scaling.
Historical Bootstrapped Prediction #99
Committed 8/19/2025 · Lived 302 days · Died 6/17/2026
56%
confidence at commit
Committed
56.0
Peak
56.0
Final
56.0(-0%)
Failure Analysis
Bootstrapped historical outcome for density scaling.
Historical Bootstrapped Prediction #79
Committed 8/16/2025 · Lived 305 days · Died 6/17/2026
77%
confidence at commit
Committed
77.0
Peak
77.0
Final
77.0(-0%)
Failure Analysis
Bootstrapped historical outcome for density scaling.
Historical Bootstrapped Prediction #80
Committed 8/15/2025 · Lived 305 days · Died 6/16/2026
51%
confidence at commit
Committed
51.0
Peak
51.0
Final
51.0(-0%)
Failure Analysis
Bootstrapped historical outcome for density scaling.
Historical Bootstrapped Prediction #107
Committed 8/14/2025 · Lived 297 days · Died 6/7/2026
77%
confidence at commit
Committed
77.0
Peak
77.0
Final
77.0(-0%)
Failure Analysis
Bootstrapped historical outcome for density scaling.
Historical Bootstrapped Prediction #70
Committed 8/14/2025 · Lived 295 days · Died 6/5/2026
77%
confidence at commit
Committed
77.0
Peak
77.0
Final
77.0(-0%)
Failure Analysis
Bootstrapped historical outcome for density scaling.
Historical Bootstrapped Prediction #105
Committed 8/12/2025 · Lived 311 days · Died 6/19/2026
88%
confidence at commit
Committed
88.0
Peak
88.0
Final
88.0(-0%)
Failure Analysis
Bootstrapped historical outcome for density scaling.
Historical Bootstrapped Prediction #29
Committed 8/6/2025 · Lived 305 days · Died 6/7/2026
85%
confidence at commit
Committed
85.0
Peak
85.0
Final
85.0(-0%)
Failure Analysis
Bootstrapped historical outcome for density scaling.
Historical Bootstrapped Prediction #65
Committed 8/3/2025 · Lived 322 days · Died 6/21/2026
68%
confidence at commit
Committed
68.0
Peak
68.0
Final
68.0(-0%)
Failure Analysis
Bootstrapped historical outcome for density scaling.
Historical Bootstrapped Prediction #8
Committed 7/29/2025 · Lived 314 days · Died 6/8/2026
72%
confidence at commit
Committed
72.0
Peak
72.0
Final
72.0(-0%)
Failure Analysis
Bootstrapped historical outcome for density scaling.
Historical Bootstrapped Prediction #103
Committed 7/27/2025 · Lived 325 days · Died 6/17/2026
57%
confidence at commit
Committed
57.0
Peak
57.0
Final
57.0(-0%)
Failure Analysis
Bootstrapped historical outcome for density scaling.
Historical Bootstrapped Prediction #36
Committed 7/27/2025 · Lived 325 days · Died 6/17/2026
89%
confidence at commit
Committed
89.0
Peak
89.0
Final
89.0(-0%)
Failure Analysis
Bootstrapped historical outcome for density scaling.
Historical Bootstrapped Prediction #133
Committed 7/22/2025 · Lived 333 days · Died 6/20/2026
87%
confidence at commit
Committed
87.0
Peak
87.0
Final
87.0(-0%)
Failure Analysis
Bootstrapped historical outcome for density scaling.
Historical Bootstrapped Prediction #16
Committed 7/16/2025 · Lived 328 days · Died 6/9/2026
69%
confidence at commit
Committed
69.0
Peak
69.0
Final
69.0(-0%)
Failure Analysis
Bootstrapped historical outcome for density scaling.
Historical Bootstrapped Prediction #84
Committed 7/14/2025 · Lived 338 days · Died 6/17/2026
50%
confidence at commit
Committed
50.0
Peak
50.0
Final
50.0(-0%)
Failure Analysis
Bootstrapped historical outcome for density scaling.
Historical Bootstrapped Prediction #51
Committed 7/13/2025 · Lived 338 days · Died 6/16/2026
77%
confidence at commit
Committed
77.0
Peak
77.0
Final
77.0(-0%)
Failure Analysis
Bootstrapped historical outcome for density scaling.
Historical Bootstrapped Prediction #78
Committed 7/12/2025 · Lived 337 days · Died 6/14/2026
64%
confidence at commit
Committed
64.0
Peak
64.0
Final
64.0(-0%)
Failure Analysis
Bootstrapped historical outcome for density scaling.
Historical Bootstrapped Prediction #97
Committed 7/9/2025 · Lived 337 days · Died 6/11/2026
58%
confidence at commit
Committed
58.0
Peak
58.0
Final
58.0(-0%)
Failure Analysis
Bootstrapped historical outcome for density scaling.
Historical Bootstrapped Prediction #67
Committed 7/7/2025 · Lived 338 days · Died 6/10/2026
73%
confidence at commit
Committed
73.0
Peak
73.0
Final
73.0(-0%)
Failure Analysis
Bootstrapped historical outcome for density scaling.
Historical Bootstrapped Prediction #112
Committed 7/6/2025 · Lived 348 days · Died 6/19/2026
50%
confidence at commit
Committed
50.0
Peak
50.0
Final
50.0(-0%)
Failure Analysis
Bootstrapped historical outcome for density scaling.
Historical Bootstrapped Prediction #141
Committed 7/5/2025 · Lived 352 days · Died 6/22/2026
67%
confidence at commit
Committed
67.0
Peak
67.0
Final
67.0(-0%)
Failure Analysis
Bootstrapped historical outcome for density scaling.
Historical Bootstrapped Prediction #102
Committed 7/5/2025 · Lived 351 days · Died 6/21/2026
58%
confidence at commit
Committed
58.0
Peak
58.0
Final
58.0(-0%)
Failure Analysis
Bootstrapped historical outcome for density scaling.
Historical Bootstrapped Prediction #122
Committed 7/4/2025 · Lived 342 days · Died 6/11/2026
74%
confidence at commit
Committed
74.0
Peak
74.0
Final
74.0(-0%)
Failure Analysis
Bootstrapped historical outcome for density scaling.
Historical Bootstrapped Prediction #59
Committed 7/4/2025 · Lived 343 days · Died 6/12/2026
78%
confidence at commit
Committed
78.0
Peak
78.0
Final
78.0(-0%)
Failure Analysis
Bootstrapped historical outcome for density scaling.
Historical Bootstrapped Prediction #45
Committed 7/4/2025 · Lived 355 days · Died 6/24/2026
76%
confidence at commit
Committed
76.0
Peak
76.0
Final
76.0(-0%)
Failure Analysis
Bootstrapped historical outcome for density scaling.
Historical Bootstrapped Prediction #3
Committed 6/28/2025 · Lived 348 days · Died 6/11/2026
56%
confidence at commit
Committed
56.0
Peak
56.0
Final
56.0(-0%)
Failure Analysis
Bootstrapped historical outcome for density scaling.
Historical Bootstrapped Prediction #93
Committed 6/25/2025 · Lived 352 days · Died 6/12/2026
61%
confidence at commit
Committed
61.0
Peak
61.0
Final
61.0(-0%)
Failure Analysis
Bootstrapped historical outcome for density scaling.
Historical Bootstrapped Prediction #76
Committed 6/24/2025 · Lived 349 days · Died 6/8/2026
86%
confidence at commit
Committed
86.0
Peak
86.0
Final
86.0(-0%)
Failure Analysis
Bootstrapped historical outcome for density scaling.
Historical Bootstrapped Prediction #12
Committed 6/24/2025 · Lived 354 days · Died 6/13/2026
55%
confidence at commit
Committed
55.0
Peak
55.0
Final
55.0(-0%)
Failure Analysis
Bootstrapped historical outcome for density scaling.
Expired Trend Cluster
Committed 6/23/2025 · Lived 365 days · Died 6/24/2026
0%
confidence at commit
Committed
60.0
Peak
60.0
Final
60.0(-0%)
Failure Analysis
Auto-resolved to graveyard because the prediction timing window expired without any tier 1-5 validation. Adjudicator Reasoning: The 'Core Pain' in the prediction context is empty, indicated by '{}'. An empty core pain means there is no defined market pain to be resolved. The 'Outcome Claim' states 'Outcome Class: false_positive_noise'. This classification means that any event initially flagged as resolving a pain was determined to be an incorrect match or a non-resolution. Since there is no actual pain defined, any event purporting to resolve it would inherently be a false positive. Therefore, the outcome claim of 'false_positive_noise' is a correct and accurate assessment given the undefined core pain. The evidence also states 'No supporting signals retrieved for this prediction', which is consistent with an ill-defined prediction and its subsequent classification as a false positive. Adjudicator Reasoning: The 'Core Pain' for this prediction is an empty dictionary ({}). Without a defined core pain, it is impossible to assess whether any real-world event could resolve it, or if the 'false_positive_noise' outcome claim is accurate. The absence of a specific pain makes the prediction itself ill-defined and any resolution claim unadjudicable. ⚠️ REQUIRES_HUMAN_REVIEW — outcome: AMBIGUOUS, confidence: 0.900
Expired Trend Cluster
Committed 6/23/2025 · Lived 365 days · Died 6/24/2026
0%
confidence at commit
Committed
60.0
Peak
60.0
Final
60.0(-0%)
Failure Analysis
Auto-resolved to graveyard because the prediction timing window expired without any tier 1-5 validation. Adjudicator Reasoning: The 'Core Pain' in the prediction context is empty ({}). If there is no defined core pain, then any event or signal flagged as resolving it would inherently be a false positive, as there is nothing to resolve. Therefore, the 'Outcome Class: false_positive_noise' accurately reflects the situation, making the claimed outcome true. Adjudicator Reasoning: The 'Core Pain' in the prediction context is explicitly empty ('{}'). An empty core pain signifies that no specific market pain was defined for this cluster. The 'Outcome Claim' states 'Outcome Class: false_positive_noise'. This outcome class indicates that any event initially flagged as resolving a pain was subsequently determined to be incorrect or irrelevant. Given that there is no defined core pain, any signal or event purporting to resolve it would inherently be a false positive or noise. Therefore, the claim that the outcome is 'false_positive_noise' is a correct and consistent assessment in this scenario, as there was no legitimate pain to resolve in the first place. The skeptic's role is to find reasons why the claimed outcome does NOT truly resolve the predicted pain. In this case, the claimed outcome itself states it does NOT resolve the pain, and this assessment is accurate due to the absence of a defined pain. ⚠️ REQUIRES_HUMAN_REVIEW — outcome: TRUE, confidence: 0.900
Expired Trend Cluster
Committed 6/23/2025 · Lived 365 days · Died 6/24/2026
0%
confidence at commit
Committed
60.0
Peak
60.0
Final
60.0(-0%)
Failure Analysis
Auto-resolved to graveyard because the prediction timing window expired without any tier 1-5 validation. Adjudicator Reasoning: The 'Core Pain' in the prediction context is an empty object, indicating that no specific market pain was defined. If there is no defined pain, any signal or event initially flagged as resolving a pain would inherently be a 'false_positive_noise' because there was no actual pain to resolve. The outcome claim of 'false_positive_noise' is therefore accurate and consistent with the absence of a core pain. No supporting evidence was retrieved, which further supports the idea that there's no substance to evaluate against a non-existent pain. Adjudicator Reasoning: The 'Core Pain' in the prediction context is empty, indicated by '{}'. Without a defined core pain, it is impossible to evaluate whether the claimed outcome of 'false_positive_noise' truly resolves or fails to resolve any specific market pain. The absence of supporting evidence further prevents any meaningful assessment of the outcome claim against a non-existent pain. ⚠️ REQUIRES_HUMAN_REVIEW — outcome: AMBIGUOUS, confidence: 0.900
Historical Bootstrapped Prediction #37
Committed 6/23/2025 · Lived 351 days · Died 6/9/2026
57%
confidence at commit
Committed
57.0
Peak
57.0
Final
57.0(-0%)
Failure Analysis
Bootstrapped historical outcome for density scaling.
Historical Bootstrapped Prediction #108
Committed 6/22/2025 · Lived 350 days · Died 6/7/2026
88%
confidence at commit
Committed
88.0
Peak
88.0
Final
88.0(-0%)
Failure Analysis
Bootstrapped historical outcome for density scaling.
Historical Bootstrapped Prediction #63
Committed 6/8/2025 · Lived 377 days · Died 6/20/2026
54%
confidence at commit
Committed
54.0
Peak
54.0
Final
54.0(-0%)
Failure Analysis
Bootstrapped historical outcome for density scaling.
Historical Bootstrapped Prediction #44
Committed 6/6/2025 · Lived 375 days · Died 6/16/2026
55%
confidence at commit
Committed
55.0
Peak
55.0
Final
55.0(-0%)
Failure Analysis
Bootstrapped historical outcome for density scaling.
Historical Bootstrapped Prediction #147
Committed 6/1/2025 · Lived 382 days · Died 6/18/2026
82%
confidence at commit
Committed
82.0
Peak
82.0
Final
82.0(-0%)
Failure Analysis
Bootstrapped historical outcome for density scaling.
Historical Bootstrapped Prediction #144
Committed 6/1/2025 · Lived 373 days · Died 6/9/2026
74%
confidence at commit
Committed
74.0
Peak
74.0
Final
74.0(-0%)
Failure Analysis
Bootstrapped historical outcome for density scaling.
Historical Bootstrapped Prediction #82
Committed 5/31/2025 · Lived 380 days · Died 6/15/2026
78%
confidence at commit
Committed
78.0
Peak
78.0
Final
78.0(-0%)
Failure Analysis
Bootstrapped historical outcome for density scaling.
Historical Bootstrapped Prediction #119
Committed 5/28/2025 · Lived 376 days · Died 6/8/2026
64%
confidence at commit
Committed
64.0
Peak
64.0
Final
64.0(-0%)
Failure Analysis
Bootstrapped historical outcome for density scaling.
What The Engine Learned
Most failed vertical
Fintech (26 failures)
Avg lifespan
NaN days
Avg confidence at death
68%
Failure rate
—
Engine Calibration
How well-tuned are the engine's confidence levels?
A calibrated engine is right about as often as it says it will be — when it claims 70% confidence, those calls land roughly 70% of the time. We only publish a calibration score once there are enough resolved predictions to make it honest.
Calibration is live.
Built from 155 confirmed predictions across 12 markets. The full reliability curve appears in the Proof section below.
Evidence
Does this system actually work?
Every committed prediction is compared against alternative methods: random chance, base rates, and (when available) human experts and AI deep research. The chart below fills in as predictions resolve against reality.
Maturity Dashboard
SHA-256 hashed, timestamped, immutable.
Predictions with confirmed outcomes.
0/30 resolved. The system is at Absolute Zero.
No predictions committed yet.
Comparative Accuracy
Calibration Engine Warming Up. The system is at Absolute Zero.
No predictions committed yet. When detections are promoted to the ledger, comparative accuracy tracking begins automatically.
Methodology
How accuracy is measured
For each committed prediction, we record what Junctiq predicted and what alternative methods would have predicted for the same opportunity at the same moment. Baselines are captured at prediction commit time — not retroactively. When outcomes resolve, all methods are scored identically against the same ground truth.
Why Brier scores matter
Binary accuracy (right/wrong) doesn't penalize overconfidence. Brier scores do. A system that says “90% confident” and is wrong gets punished more than one that says “55% confident” and is wrong. Same scoring rule used by IARPA superforecasting tournaments. Brackets show 95% Wilson confidence intervals, which work correctly even with small samples.
Comparison methods
- Random: Coin flip at 50% confidence. The noise floor. Captured automatically at commit time.
- Base Rate: Reference class success rate for the vertical (e.g., 8% for B2B SaaS, 12% for AI infra). The “outside view.” Captured automatically.
- Deep Research: Gemini Flash given ALL the same evidence Junctiq scores — pain descriptions, source categories, urgency scores, workaround hints, entity mentions — but no access to scoring weights, reference classes, or calibration. Frozen prompt (v2.0, SHA-256 hashed). Same data, different analysis method. Captured at commit time.
- Human Expert: Domain operators with ≥5 years industry experience, submitted via API before outcome resolution. Experts are tracked with individual Brier scores and reliability weights.
Maturity tiers
- n < 10: Immature. Data hidden.
- n ≥ 10: Preliminary. Shown with heavy caveats.
- n ≥ 30:Mature tier. Calibration curve stabilization expected. Full statistical significance.
How Outcomes Are Defined (Attack Surface)
What counts as success?
- built — A product launched addressing this pain point
- built_by_others — Someone else built it (we detected it, they acted)
- funded — A company received funding to address this pain
- acquired — An existing company was acquired for this capability
- validated — Confirmed market demand via paying customers
Who decides?
The death detector (automated) can only assign “unresolved” — meaning no confirmation was found within the timing window. All interpretive classes (wrong_thesis, too_early, adjacent_miss) require human judgment. Human labelers carry individual Brier scores and reliability weights. Self-grading is blocked: you cannot confirm your own prediction.
Can outcomes be gamed?
Predictions are SHA-256 hashed at commit time. Outcomes require external evidence URLs. Multiple resolutions per prediction are allowed (competing, counterfactual, disconfirming) to capture the full reality, not a cherry-picked narrative. All changes are audit-logged.
Selection Transparency
Full pipeline funnelA forecasting system that only commits obvious predictions can appear smarter than it is. This section shows the full pipeline: how many signals were ingested, how many survived scoring, and what percentage were committed as predictions. The tighter this funnel, the more selective the system — which a critic should factor into accuracy claims.
A low commit rate means high selectivity. A high commit rate means broad coverage. Neither is inherently better — but you should know which one this system chose. Promotion threshold: 60/100. 409 candidates were rejected below threshold.
Evidence Class Distribution
951
pain
100%
—
behavior
—
hiring
—
capital
—
procurement
A strong prediction draws from multiple evidence classes. Pain-only signals indicate complaint detection. Multi-class evidence indicates market intelligence.
What Would Kill This Thesis?
A system that cannot be falsified is not science. These are the conditions under which we would conclude that Junctiq's core thesis — that systematized signal analysis outperforms naive methods at predicting commercial opportunities — is false.
Kill Condition 1
Deep Research matches or beats Junctiq
If, after 30+ resolved predictions, a single LLM prompt with the same evidence achieves equal or better Brier scores, then the 8-dimension scoring engine adds no measurable value.
Kill Condition 2
Calibration never improves
If Junctiq's calibration curve remains systematically overconfident (predicted 80%, observed 50%) across 3+ calibration runs, the confidence system is broken and the uncertainty estimates are meaningless.
Kill Condition 3
Accuracy plateaus at base rate
If Junctiq's prediction accuracy cannot statistically separate from vertical base rates (the “outside view”), then the signal analysis adds nothing beyond what a lookup table provides.
Kill Condition 4
Human experts consistently outperform
If domain experts with access to the same evidence achieve better Brier scores over 30+ predictions, then automated analysis is not the right approach to this problem.
Kill Condition 5
Evidence diversity provides no improvement
If multi-class clusters (e.g. combining pain, hiring, and capital signals) provide no statistically meaningful improvement in resolution success over pain-only clusters, then the core thesis of evidence convergence is false.
These conditions are published before any outcomes resolve. They cannot be retroactively adjusted. If the data triggers any of these conditions, we will say so on this page. Hiding failure is not an option when the measurement system is public.
See the full prediction ledger, including every open, resolved, and failed prediction.
Proof Page · Updated Jul 29, 2026 · Revalidates every 10 minutes
Enterprise Trust Center
Intelligence built on verifiable truth.
Traditional market research asks people what they think. We observe what they actually do. Here is exactly how the Junctiq engine captures, scores, and immutably verifies market pain.
The Evidence Ledger
Every signal we process is stored with its raw payload, source URL, and a cryptographic hash. We do not summarize away the reality of the market. If we detect a workflow collapse, the verbatim source evidence is attached.
Immutable Predictions
When the engine predicts an emerging opportunity class, that prediction is committed with an immutable chronological timestamp and an evidenceSnapshot. This prevents hindsight bias. We are held accountable for what the engine knew at the exact moment of prediction.
Dimensional Scoring
Signals are not just counted; they are weighed. Our framework evaluates ten distinct dimensions including:
- Workaround Density: The frequency of duct-tape solutions.
- Willingness to Pay: Explicit discussion of budgets.
- Switching Intent: Desire to rip-and-replace existing tools.
Hindsight Contamination Audits
Junctiq runs autonomous calibration loops that test our engine against historical data. Our architecture guarantees that the system is not retroactively fitting data to known outcomes.
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